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Growing concerns are present about the possibility of warfare involving Horn of Africa countries, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as confrontational language has intensified in the past few weeks.

What Did Ethiopian Officials Stated?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, calls for access to the Red Sea through Eritrea has provoked a fierce war of words.

PM Abiy Ahmed first openly declared in 2023 that his country's access to the sea was an vital issue, remarks that Eritrea rejected.

Ties between the two countries have regularly been difficult. Following a prolonged battle for independence, the Eritrean state, which has a long Red Sea coastline, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, rendering it cut off from the sea.

Five years later, a border war broke out in which numerous people died.

Current Statements from Ethiopian Government

Abiy and army chief General Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted sovereignty of Eritrean southern port of the port of Assab – about 60km from the boundary - and implied the intention to capture it through military means.

In early September, Abiy said the country's "mistake" of losing entry to the Red Sea as a due to Eritrea's separation would be "corrected soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopian property" and would be returned "by force".

Eritrean Response to the Threats

In the face of continuous warnings from Ethiopia, Eritrea's reaction has been confined to concise remarks on social media from Communications Head the minister.

Officials have denied Ethiopia's demand for access to the Red Sea labeling it "dangerous" and a "toxic agenda" of "irredentism" – a policy of reclaiming former lands.

The information ministry alerted on mid-September that efforts to legitimise "obvious provocation" would have major implications for the Ethiopian government and its regional partners and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Activities on the Region

So far, there are no reports of major military movements in the boundary zones between the two countries.

However, in Ethiopia, government media has displayed graduation ceremonies of numerous trainees at different defense facilities.

The director of human resources department of the military, the officer, stated recently in an discussion that the defense forces was in a "strong stance" as "many thousands of recruits" were enlisting, which he said was "a warning to our enemies".

Past Background of the Tension

For more than half a century from 1890, Eritrea was administered by colonial powers.

Following World War II, it was then administered by the British administration before evolving into a integrated region of Ethiopia.

However in 1962 the Ethiopian emperor ended this arrangement and the region became completely integrated into the Ethiopian state.

A three-decade long internal conflict ensued, concluding with the government's loss in 1991. Independence was then confirmed by the population in a vote in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the governments in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the specific demarcation of their common border, leading to war in 1998.

Although this finished in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the two nations continued at in dispute.

This situation improved in 2018, when Abiy made overtures to Eritrean President President Isaias. The two signed a declaration that the conflict was finished – a action that gained Abiy the prestigious award.

The neighboring states were then partners in Ethiopia's recent armed struggle in Tigray.

Yet diplomatic connections have later worsened once more.