Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
