🔗 Share this article

Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It frequently serves as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the largest turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or merely the greatest upset.

Yet the current race is distinctly different. The group of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning conference winners fading and recent also-rans rising collectively. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this wild and fun year, he's up against multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to spin big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the level of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal season, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a normal year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. However he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a given following his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, he bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still